No opportunites in either direction

Click Here For Wyckoff Wave Chart 03-21-2016

Short Term:

There are no new opportunities in either direction

Intermediate & Long Term: No change from Friday.

Intermediate and long-term bulls should maintain existing positions. However, positions that had reached objective areas and those that have underperformed, can be liquidated as the Wyckoff Wave reached the top the top of its trading range.

There are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the downside.

Market Trends:

Intra-day: Up and in an overbought position relative to the trend

Short Term: Up, but slightly weakened and in an oversold position relative to the trend..

Intermediate Term: Down and in an overbought position, relative to the trend.

Long Term: Neutral

The stock market, as measured by the Wyckoff Wave, traded higher on decreased volume. It closed near the top of a sustained price spread, in a low neutral condition relative to the Technometer. The price spread and volume suggest a lack of demand.

A review of the intra-day waves confirms the above. After a minor gap opening to the downside, the Wyckoff Wave rallied to point J. There it encountered some supply and reacted to point K. This took place during the first 65 min. of the trading day.

Then, the Wyckoff Wave spent the next three hours in a poor quality rally to point L.

After moving sideways for the next hour, moderate supply came back into the market and the Wyckoff Wave put in a small reaction on light supply.

While the second to last intra-day wave appeared to have reasonable spread and good volume, it lasted two hours and 25 min. This, not good supply, accounted for the relatively high volume.

While the day was marked as a lack of demand day, there was very little supply present. This allowed the small advance.

The Wyckoff Wave remains in an overbought position relative to its intra-day channel. Today’s lack of supply suggests the Wyckoff Wave will have a difficult time continuing its rally to the upside. It is expected to react back into the intra-day up trend channel.

The Optimism – Pessimism Index rallied very slightly. It remains at the supply line of its upward trend channel. The short-term negative divergence with the Wyckoff Wave, when compared with point P, remains in place. So doing it longer-term negative divergences with the top of the trading range.

The Force Index reacted and is producing solidly moderate negative readings.

Tomorrow, the Technometer will open in a slightly oversold condition.

Today, the Wyckoff Wave put in a poor quality attempt to rally and test the top of the trading range. It was also unable to return to its short-term uptrend channel. This is an indication of relative weakness.

The O-P Index’s short-term negative divergence with the Wave, when compared with point P, suggest little effort has gone into the rally of the last five days. This poor level of performance makes it difficult to forecast the Wyckoff Wave moving through the top of the trading range.

In addition to the lack of demand and the above-mentioned a negative divergence, the Force Index is reacting. If the Technometer had closed in an oversold condition, the Force Index would have a small mitigating impact on the Technometer.

The Technometer readings are a bit troublesome. However, when the Wyckoff indicators disagree, the deciding factor should be the price spread and volume. So far, it has not been particularly strong to the upside.

The Wyckoff Wave should successfully test the top of the trading range.

Charts of the Wyckoff Wave are attached.