📈 Wyckoff SMI “Week In Review” August 23th, 2026.
📋 Market ScoreCard
| Symbol | Trend | WyckoffSMI View |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | Bullish / Testing Support | Our August 13 short-term top call worked well. SPY corrected back toward prior resistance near $760 and the Technometer is now oversold at 36.08. |
| QQQ | Corrective / Stabilizing | QQQ rolled over with the market, but the Wyckoff Alert Engine fired a Backup (BU) Thursday. Watching for support and renewed demand. |
| TLT | Bearish | Fed-driven rally failed to hold. We continue to favor lower TLT prices and a higher-rate environment. |
| GDX | Bullish / Extended | Precious metals surged on Fed news. Momentum is strong, but we missed our desired entry and will not chase. |
| XLE | Bullish | Continued higher to new highs as expected. Energy remains one of our preferred longer-term sectors. |
| BTC | Bullish / Extended | Bitcoin surged sharply on the debasement trade. Watching the next pullback for evidence of support. |
| ETH | Bullish / Extended | Ethereum broke sharply higher with crypto strength. We want to see how price handles a short-term pullback. |
| U.S. Dollar | Weakening | Continued weakness following the Fed intervention has erased most of our unrealized gains on the long position. |
| IBB | Leading | Biotechnology remains among the strongest areas in our sector studies. |
| ARKK | Leading | Innovation/growth continues showing improving relative strength. |
| XLB | Emerging | Materials appears to be emerging from a base and deserves close attention. |
🧮 Wyckoff Market Health Dashboard
Market Health Score: 57
- Health: Neutral / Improving
- Execution: High
- Trend: Trending Up
- Confirmation: Strong
- Condition: Stabilizing / Improving
- Cluster: Breakout
- Regime: Transition / Selective Bullish
The dashboard improved meaningfully this week. Strong Confirmation, a Trending Up reading and High Execution support a more constructive environment. However, the Transition / Selective Bullish regime continues to favor disciplined sector and stock selection rather than indiscriminate buying.
🌍 Macro Market Backdrop
The market corrected last week after the short-term top we warned about on August 13. SPY has now returned near prior resistance around $760, which could potentially become support, while the Technometer has moved into oversold territory.
At the same time, Fed intervention drove sharp moves across currencies, precious metals and crypto. The Dollar weakened, metals and crypto surged, while TLT failed to hold its initial Fed-driven rally.
The Market Health Score improved to 57, with Trend now Trending Up, Confirmation Strong, and the Cluster reading moving to Breakout.
🧭 Market Overview (SPY / QQQ)
Last week we questioned whether SPY’s upside had been exhausted after the rally to new highs. Our August 13 warning of a short-term top proved timely, with SPY correcting back toward the $760 area. The Technometer is now oversold at 36.08, making the current support test important. Price action remains constructive if this former resistance can hold and turn into support.
QQQ also rolled over from its recent rally. Importantly, our Wyckoff Alert Engine fired a Backup (BU) Thursday, suggesting the pullback deserves close attention. We will watch to see whether demand can reassert itself from current levels.
🏦 Interest Rates & Defensive Assets (TLT)
TLT initially rallied following the Fed news Wednesday but surrendered most of those gains before the end of the week. Markets continue showing concern about inflation, the yen trade and the longer-term interest-rate outlook. You can see our Wyckoff Alert Engine fired a LPSY to end the week. We continue to favor lower TLT prices.
⛏️ Gold / Hard Assets (GDX)
Precious metals surged again following the Fed news as investors embraced the debasement trade. We had been looking for a low but never received the entry we wanted. With investors now chasing the advance, we will remain on the sidelines rather than chase an extended move. We still want to add to precious metals positions for longer term.
⚡ Energy Sector (XLE)
XLE continued its strong rally and reached new highs as expected. Energy remains one of our preferred longer-term areas, and we continue to like the sector’s relative strength and leadership characteristics.
₿ Crypto Market Overview (BTC / ETH)
Bitcoin surged sharply last week as investors responded to Fed intervention and renewed concerns surrounding currency debasement. The move has materially improved the price structure. We now want to see how Bitcoin behaves during a short-term pullback before becoming more aggressive.
Ethereum delivered an even stronger breakout and moved sharply higher with increased volume. As with Bitcoin, we want to see whether demand remains present during the next pullback rather than chase the initial surge.
🔄 Rotational & Thematic Notes
Current sector leadership:
- GDX — Gold Miners
- IBB — Biotechnology
- ARKK — Innovation / Growth
- XLB — Materials — Emerging from a base
The rotation remains broad enough to support selective participation, while the improving XLB structure is particularly worth monitoring.
🧠 Tactical Outlook
Our expected short-term stock-market correction arrived, and SPY has now reached an area where we are watching for support. The oversold Technometer and QQQ Backup signal make the coming week particularly important.
We remain bearish on TLT, cautious on the Dollar following recent weakness, bullish longer term on XLE, and unwilling to chase the sharp advances in precious metals and crypto.
👉 What We’re Watching Now
- Does former SPY resistance near $760 become support?
- Does SPY’s oversold Technometer produce another rally?
- Does QQQ confirm Thursday’s Backup signal?
- Does TLT continue lower after failing to hold its Fed rally?
- Can the U.S. Dollar stabilize after its recent weakness?
- How does GDX behave after its sharp advance?
- Does XLE continue making new highs?
- How do BTC and ETH handle their first meaningful pullbacks?
- Does XLB successfully emerge from its base?
🎯 ProTraders CTA
Inside WyckoffSMI ProTraders members receive:
- Institutional Wyckoff analysis
- Relative strength leadership tracking
- Sector rotation dashboards
- Tactical positioning updates
- Wyckoff Alert Engine signals
- Crypto and equity market intelligence
Join WyckoffSMI ProTraders and track institutional money flow in real time.
👉 Join WyckoffSMI ProTraders and trade alongside a professional Wyckoff framework:
WyckoffSMI.com
⚠️ Disclaimer
The WyckoffSMI Week In Review is provided for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All commentary reflects a Wyckoff-structure interpretation at the time of publication and may change as market conditions evolve.
Investing involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. WyckoffSMI and affiliated entities may hold positions in securities discussed. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should consult a qualified financial professional before acting.
Responses