A Very Quiet Day

Friday, August 19, 2016

Click here to open the attached charts

What To Do?

Short Term:
There are no short-term opportunities to the upside.
Aggressive short-term bears should maintain their positions. They should be closed if strong demand returns.

Intermediate & Long Term:
Their are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the upside.
Long-term positions to the upside should be maintained.
There are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the downside

Market Trends:

Intra-day: Down
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Neutral
Long Term: Neutral

The stock market, as measured by the Wyckoff Wave, traded lower on decreased volume. It closed in the middle of a narrower price spread, in a slightly oversold condition relative to the Technometer. The price spread and volume suggest a lack of supply.

A review of the intra-day waves indicates both a lack of demand and a lack of supply. After a fairly wide gap opening to the downside supply continued for the next 15 min. and the Wyckoff Wave reacted to point H.

Then, the Wyckoff Wave rallied to point I on a lack of demand. It moved sideways for the rest of the trading day.

The day’s price spread was only 113 points.

The Wyckoff Wave was unable to reach yesterdays high at point F. However the sideways movement is putting the Wave in a position to test the intra-day down trend channels supply line.

There is also an intra-day negative divergence when point I is compared to point F.

While the Wyckoff Wave may test the intra-day down trend channel’s supply line, it should have a difficult time moving through that resistance area to the upside.

Look for the Wyckoff Wave to react and test the channels support line, as the long sideways move from point V continues.

The Optimism – Pessimism Index reacted slightly and remains in its upward trend channel. It is back in harmony with the Wyckoff Wave.

On Monday, the Technometer will open in a slightly oversold condition.

Today, the Wyckoff Wave continued its sideways movement. It provided very little information as to its future direction.

Today’s market action is another indication that the Wyckoff Wave is drifting with little demand to push it to the upside and little supply to cause a reaction.

While the intra-day charts suggest a brief reaction, the overall market dullness as seen in the narrow price spread and low volume continue to suggest the Wyckoff Wave’s the next move will be to the upside.

There is a count of 3,800 along the 41,200 line on the 100 Point & Figure chart. This would give the Wyckoff Wave a maximum objective to the upside of 45,000. This would give the Wyckoff Wave an opportunity to test the high at point E.

While that is possible, it is only in complete count and if a rally is going to take place, demand needs to return to the market.