An Intra-day Trend Change

Thursday, July 7, 2016

What To Do?

Click here to open the attached charts

Short Term:
Their are no short-term opportunities to the upside.

Aggressive short-term bears should maintain their short positions.

Intermediate & Long Term:
Their are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the upside.

There are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the downside.

Market Trends:

Intra-day: Changed to Neutral
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Neutral
Long Term: Neutral

The stock market, as measured by the Wyckoff Wave, traded slightly lower on slightly decreased volume. It closed in the middle of a narrower price spread, in a neutral condition relative to the Technometer. The price spread and volume suggest a lack of supply.

A review of the intra-day waves indicates today featured a lack of demand.

After a very small gap opening to the upside, the Wyckoff Wave continued to rally to point U. The rally was on relatively narrow price spread and lower volume.

Supply came into the market at point U and the Wyckoff Wave reacted to point V. While the reaction began on good supply, supply began to dry up. The reaction continued to point V, primarily on a lack of demand.

Some demand returned and the Wyckoff Wave rallied. However, the rally lasted an hour and 20 min. and the Wyckoff Wave made little progress, until the last wave of the trading day.

Because the rally to point U was unable to return the Wyckoff Wave to its intra-day up trend channel, the intra-day trend is changed from up to neutral.

Today’s poor quality market action continues to suggest the Wyckoff Wave will be unable to rally past the resistance at points M, Q and now U. It continues to suggest the Wyckoff Wave will react and test the lows at points G and E.

The Optimism – Pessimism Index rallied and remains in its intra-day up trend channel. There is a very slight negative divergence with the Wyckoff Wave when compared with point V.

The Force Index rallied and is producing good positive readings.

Tomorrow, the Technometer will open in a neutral condition.

Today, the Wyckoff Wave tried briefly to test Friday’s high and failed. The lack of demand continues to suggest the Wyckoff Wave will not continue to rally, but react back into the trading range.

After today’s morning rally, the Wyckoff Wave it put in two consecutive lower tops after the high at point C. This, plus a successful test of point A and C all point to the reaction scenario.

In order to make things easier to read, in addition to the chart of the Wyckoff Wave, which includes last August Selling Climax, a three-month vertical line chart is also included. This is in addition to the intra-day chart.