No changes from Tuesday

Short term bears who took positions to the downside should maintain them. New positions can also be considered.

There are no short-term opportunities to the upside.

Intermediate and long-term bulls should maintain existing positions.

There are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the downside.

Intra-day: Neutral

Short Term: Up, but weakened.

Intermediate Term: Down and in an overbought position, relative to the trend.

Long Term:  Neutral

The stock market, as measured by the Wyckoff Wave, experienced and intra-day failure to the downside. It closed, on increased volume, in the upper half of a wider price spread, in a high neutral condition relative to the Technometer. The intra-day failure suggests the presence of demand.

A review of the intra-day waves indicates that, despite the intra-day failure, today was dominated by supply.

After a small gap opening to the downside, the Wyckoff Wave rallied to point G. There supply came into the market and the Wave reacted sharply to point H. On the surface, the wide price spread and high volume suggested strong supply. However, that intra-day wave lasted 3 hours and 15 min. That suggested supply was drying up and not as strong as it appeared on the intra-day chart.

Demand returned at point H and the Wyckoff Wave rallied to point I. Demand was withdrawn and some supply returned during the last hour and 15 min. of the trading day.

So far, the Wyckoff Wave has successfully tested the highs at points D and S. Today was an excellent opportunity for demand to come into the market. The fact that it did not happen continues to suggest the Wyckoff Wave is vulnerable to react.

The Optimism – Pessimism Index reacted slightly and remains in an oversold position relative to its upward trend channel. It is in a very short-term negative divergence with the Wyckoff Wave when compared with point P. The longer-term divergences with the top of the trading range remain in place.

The Force Index reacted and is producing moderately negative readings.

Tomorrow, the Technometer will open in a slightly overbought condition.

Today, despite the intra-day failure to the downside, the Wyckoff Wave continued moving sideways. It further weakened its short-term uptrend channel. Today’s absence of good demand continues to suggest the Wyckoff Wave will be unable to return to its short-term up trend channel and is quite vulnerable to react.

The short-term O – P Index’s  negative divergence with the Wyckoff Wave continues to demonstrate that the strong effort to the upside (O – P Index) is not producing equal results (Wyckoff Wave).

The Technometer continues in a nearly overbought or overbought condition. This will make it difficult for the Wyckoff Wave to make much progress to the upside and, more importantly returned to its up trend channel.

The overhanging supply coming from the sideways movement that began at point V continues to influence the Wyckoff Wave and is a primary factor in its inability to continue the rally off the bottom of the trading range.

While it is not happening as soon as I expected, the reaction back to the bottom of the trading range scenario still has a strong probability of success.