📈 Wyckoff SMI “Week In Review” Nov 1st, 2026.
📋 Market ScoreCard
| Symbol | Trend | WyckoffSMI View |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | Bearish / Weakening | Caught support after Overbought Technometer and negative price/volume divergence preceded Friday’s heavy-volume selloff. We expect lower. |
| QQQ | Bearish | Leading the market lower with heavy selling volume. Further weakness appears likely. |
| TLT | Bearish / Rebounding | Rallied from recent lows on defensive buying. We see limited additional upside. |
| U.S. Dollar | Bullish | Remains firm. We continue looking for higher prices. |
| GDX | Bearish | Downtrend continues with no confirmed bottom. Watching for a possible major low. |
| XLE | Bullish / Leading | Closed near the highs of its recent move. We continue looking for higher. |
| BTC | Bearish / Correcting | Continuing lower as expected. $75,000 remains a downside objective, with risk of further weakness. |
| ETH | Bearish / Correcting | Strong post-Fed rally, but Continues lower. No convincing reversal signal yet. |
| XLV | Leading / Defensive | One of the strongest areas in our sector studies. |
| XLP | Defensive Leadership | Consumer Staples identified among the leading sectors in the Market Health dashboard. |
| XLU | Leading / Defensive | Utilities continue to attract relative strength. |
🧮 Wyckoff Market Health Dashboard
Market Health Score: 60
- Health: Neural
- Execution: High
- Trend: Trending Up
- Confirmation: Mixed
- Condition: Stabilizing
- Rotation: Defensive
- Key Shift: Leadership mixed, no decisive shift yet
The dashboard remains relatively constructive, but this contrasts with the recent weakness in the major averages. We want to see whether broader market conditions begin deteriorating to confirm the bearish price action.
🌍 Macro Market Backdrop
Stocks had a difficult week, confirming the weakness we have been warning about for several weeks.
Our overbought Technometer readings and negative price/volume divergence in SPY warned that the recent rally was vulnerable. Friday’s heavy-volume selling adds to the bearish picture.
Meanwhile, the Dollar remains firm, TLT has attracted defensive buying, and leadership continues shifting toward Energy and defensive sectors.
Market Health Score: 60, reflecting a mixed environment. While the broader dashboard remains neutral, the weakness in SPY and QQQ calls for caution.
🧭 Market Overview (SPY / QQQ)
SPY finally began breaking lower after weeks of warnings from our indicators.
The overbought Technometer reading and negative divergence between price and volume, highlighted by the red arrows on our chart, suggested the rally was running out of strength.
Friday brought heavy selling volume, reinforcing our expectation that lower prices are still ahead.
QQQ has been leading the market lower, confirming the weakness in growth and technology-related stocks.
Our Technometer was also overbought last week, and Friday’s heavy-volume decline suggests selling pressure remains significant.
We continue to expect lower prices.
🏦 Interest Rates & Defensive Assets (TLT)
We have maintained a bearish outlook on TLT for months, and the larger decline has unfolded as expected.
Recently, TLT has rallied from its lows as investors sought safety during stock market weakness.
However, we do not expect significantly higher prices and continue to view the rally cautiously.
⛏️ Gold / Hard Assets (GDX)
Precious metals continue trending lower, and we still do not see convincing evidence that a major bottom has formed.
Bullish sentiment toward the metals had become excessive, and we believe that optimism needed to be washed out.
We remain on the lookout for a potential major low, but for now patience is warranted.
⚡ Energy Sector (XLE)
Energy continues to be one of our strongest markets.
We have maintained a bullish outlook on XLE throughout the year, and our Wyckoff Alert Engine produced another BU (Backup) signal approximately six weeks ago.
XLE closed near the highs of its recent move Friday, and we continue to expect higher prices.
Energy remains an important leadership sector.
₿ Crypto Market Overview (BTC / ETH)
Bitcoin continues correcting as expected.
We have been discussing the possibility of a decline toward $75,000, and that remains a reasonable downside objective.
Our charts suggest even lower prices are possible, so we will closely monitor price and volume in the coming week before looking for a more favorable entry.
Ethereum continues to trade lower alongside Bitcoin.
The recent structure remains defensive, and we do not yet see a convincing reason to become aggressive on the long side.
We remain patient and will watch for evidence of selling pressure exhausting itself.
🔄 Rotational & Thematic Notes
Current sector leadership from our sector studies includes XLE (Energy), XLV (Healthcare), and XLU (Utilities).
The Market Health dashboard also identifies XLP (Consumer Staples) among the leaders.
The emphasis on Energy and defensive sectors is consistent with a market where investors are becoming more selective and moving away from higher-risk areas.
🧠 Tactical Outlook
Our cautious outlook on stocks continues to be supported by recent price and volume action.
Both SPY and QQQ have shown weakness following overbought Technometer readings, and Friday’s selling suggests the correction may have further to run.
We continue to favor XLE, remain bullish on the Dollar, and see limited upside in TLT. Precious metals remain under pressure, while Bitcoin and Ethereum could experience additional weakness.
The priority remains protecting capital, respecting the selling pressure, and waiting for better low-risk opportunities.
👉 What We’re Watching Now
- Can SPY stabilize after Friday’s heavy-volume selloff, or will selling accelerate?
- Does QQQ continue leading the market lower?
- Can TLT extend its defensive rally, or does resistance return?
- Does the Dollar continue higher?
- Will GDX begin showing evidence of a major bottom?
- Can XLE extend its leadership to new highs?
- Does Bitcoin test $75,000 or lower?
- Will Ethereum show signs of selling exhaustion?
- Can XLV, XLP and XLU maintain defensive leadership?
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⚠️ Disclaimer
The WyckoffSMI Week In Review is provided for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All commentary reflects a Wyckoff-structure interpretation at the time of publication and may change as market conditions evolve.
Investing involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. WyckoffSMI and affiliated entities may hold positions in securities discussed. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should consult a qualified financial professional before acting.
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