📈 Wyckoff SMI “Week In Review” Sept 20th, 2026.

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📋 Market ScoreCard

SymbolTrendWyckoffSMI View
SPYRange / ConstructiveCaught support after Wednesday’s late selloff and is attempting to rally from the BU area. Wednesday’s low is important support.
QQQRange / ImprovingBounced from its BU levels and is attempting another move higher. The 700 area remains important support.
TLTBearish / WeakSlightly higher for the week, but we still see no evidence of a solid bottom.
U.S. DollarBullishRallied solidly for the week as expected. We continue looking for higher.
GDXRange / WeakeningSlightly lower for the week. We continue to see potential for sideways-to-lower action.
XLEBullish / ConstructiveSlightly lower for the week and fired a BU Wednesday. We continue to expect strength.
BTCBullish / OverboughtSurged following the Fed meeting, but the Technometer is now overbought. We are watching for another correction.
ETHBullish / OverboughtStrong post-Fed rally, but Technometer conditions are now overbought.
ARKKLeadingOne of the strongest areas in our sector studies.
SMHLeadingSemiconductors remain among the market leaders.
XLKLeadingTechnology continues to show relative strength.

🧮 Wyckoff Market Health Dashboard

Market Health Score: 47

  • Health: Weakening
  • Execution: Moderate
  • Trend: Range / Mixed
  • Confirmation: Mixed
  • Condition: Weakening
  • Cluster: Transition
  • Regime: Defensive / Weakening

The individual setups have improved, but the broader readings still argue for selectivity. We want the market to prove itself rather than anticipate confirmation.


🌍 Macro Market Backdrop

Markets absorbed another important week surrounding the Fed.

SPY and QQQ both found support following Wednesday’s late selloff and are attempting to rally from their Backup areas. That is constructive, but our broader readings remain mixed.

The Market Health Score is 47, with Health and Condition still Weakening and the overall regime remaining Defensive / Weakening. So while individual setups are improving, we still want confirmation before becoming more aggressive.

The Dollar strengthened as expected, TLT remains weak, precious metals continue consolidating, and Energy remains one of the areas we continue to favor.


🧭 Market Overview (SPY / QQQ)

SPY caught support following Wednesday’s late selloff and is now attempting to trade higher from the BU (Backup) area. As long as Wednesday’s low holds, the structure gives SPY an opportunity to continue higher.

The Technometer has quickly returned toward neutral, so we will now watch closely for the next overbought reading and how price responds when it arrives.


QQQ also bounced from its BU levels and is attempting to move higher again. We continue to look for additional upside this week.

The 700 area is important support. Holding above that level keeps the current bullish structure intact; a meaningful failure there would change the character of the setup.


🏦 Interest Rates & Defensive Assets (TLT)

TLT finished slightly higher for the week, but we still see no convincing evidence that a durable bottom has formed.

The larger trend remains weak, and we continue to monitor for evidence of accumulation before changing our outlook.


⛏️ Gold / Hard Assets (GDX)

Precious metals finished slightly lower for the week and continue consolidating after their recent strength.

We can still see sideways-to-lower price action developing in the week ahead and remain patient rather than chasing the sector.


⚡ Energy Sector (XLE)

XLE finished slightly lower for the week but continues to act constructively.

Importantly, our Wyckoff Alert Engine fired a BU Wednesday. We continue to like the longer-term structure and expect Energy to remain an area of relative strength.


₿ Crypto Market Overview (BTC / ETH)

Bitcoin surged following the Fed meeting and remains above its recent breakout area. However, the Technometer has moved into an overbought condition.

Rather than chase the strength, we will watch for another correction to unfold and evaluate the quality of the next pullback.


Ethereum also rallied strongly following the Fed meeting and continues to hold above its prior trading range.

Like Bitcoin, the Technometer has reached an overbought condition. We would prefer another correction before evaluating the next opportunity.


🔄 Rotational & Thematic Notes

Current sector leadership:

  • ARKK — Innovation/Growth
  • SMH — Semiconductors
  • XLK — Technology

Technology and growth remain important areas of relative strength even as the broader Market Health readings remain defensive.


🧠 Tactical Outlook

SPY and QQQ did what we wanted to see following Wednesday’s weakness: they found support around their Backup areas and turned higher.

Now we need follow-through.

As long as Wednesday’s SPY low holds and QQQ remains above its important support area, the indices have an opportunity to continue higher.

We remain constructive on the Dollar and XLE, cautious on TLT and precious metals, and patient with Bitcoin and Ethereum after their strong rallies pushed the Technometers into overbought territory.


👉 What We’re Watching Now

  • Does SPY successfully rally from its BU?
  • Does Wednesday’s SPY low continue to hold?
  • Can QQQ extend higher while maintaining support above 700?
  • Where does the next SPY/QQQ overbought Technometer reading develop?
  • Does TLT continue to struggle without evidence of a bottom?
  • Can the Dollar extend last week’s rally?
  • Does GDX continue sideways/lower?
  • Does XLE follow through from Wednesday’s BU?
  • Do BTC and ETH begin correcting from overbought conditions?
  • Do ARKK, SMH and XLK maintain sector leadership?

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⚠️ Disclaimer

The WyckoffSMI Week In Review is provided for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All commentary reflects a Wyckoff-structure interpretation at the time of publication and may change as market conditions evolve.

Investing involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. WyckoffSMI and affiliated entities may hold positions in securities discussed. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should consult a qualified financial professional before acting.


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