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📋 Market ScoreCard

Symbol	Trend	WyckoffSMI View
SPY	Range / Testing Support	Trading into the $760 Backup zone. Technometer is oversold near 38, giving SPY an opportunity to rally. Failure to respond would warn of a deeper correction.
QQQ	Range / Mixed	Continues sideways/lower. We expect QQQ to attempt an upside move with SPY, but confirmation is needed.
TLT	Bearish	Continues trending lower as expected. Downside volume increased over the last three sessions and we see no bottom yet.
U.S. Dollar	Testing Support	Holding near levels that need to defend for our bullish outlook. We remain long with close protective stops.
GDX	Bullish / Consolidating	Holding most of its recent gains. We would prefer a further pullback before becoming more aggressive.
XLE	Bullish	Continues working higher as expected and remains a leadership sector.
BTC	Range / Mixed	Near the lower portion of its recent range. A further pullback could potentially produce a Backup following the recent JAC.
ETH	Range / Mixed	Trading near the lower end of its recent range after firing a BU two weeks ago.
SMH	Leading	Semiconductor leadership remains strong.
XLK	Leading	Technology remains among the strongest sectors in our studies.

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🧮 Wyckoff Market Health Dashboard

Market Health Score: 46

• Health: Weakening
• Execution: Low
• Trend: Range / Mixed
• Confirmation: Weak
• Condition: Weakening
• Cluster: Transition
• Regime: Defensive / Weakening

This is a meaningful deterioration from recent readings. With Execution Low and Confirmation Weak, this is not an environment where we want to force trades.

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🌍 Macro Market Backdrop

The market enters an important week with SPY testing the $760 Backup zone while our Technometer is once again oversold.

That creates an opportunity for buyers to respond. If they don’t, the failure to rally from oversold conditions would be important information and could signal that a deeper correction is developing.

At the same time, TLT continues lower, the Dollar is testing important support, and the market will be focused on the Fed Wednesday.

Our Market Health Score has fallen to 46, with the regime now Defensive / Weakening. That argues for patience and lower execution until conditions improve.

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🧭 Market Overview (SPY / QQQ)

SPY continues to trade slightly lower into the $760 Backup zone we have been discussing. The Technometer is once again oversold at approximately 38, which should give the market an opportunity to rally.

This is an important test. If SPY cannot rally from these conditions and loses support, that would increase the probability that a much deeper correction is unfolding.

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QQQ has also been trading sideways to lower. We expect it to participate if SPY attempts an oversold rally, but we want to see actual demand and upside confirmation before becoming more constructive.

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🏦 Interest Rates & Defensive Assets (TLT)

TLT continues trending lower, consistent with our outlook over the past several weeks. There are still no convincing signs of a bottom, and volume increased on the downside during the final three sessions.

With the Fed speaking Wednesday, interest rates remain a major focus. For now, the TLT structure continues to favor lower prices and potentially higher longer-term rates.

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⛏️ Gold / Hard Assets (GDX)

Precious metals have held the majority of their recent gains, which is constructive. However, we would prefer to see an additional pullback in the coming week before looking for another favorable setup.

We are not interested in chasing strength at current levels.

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⚡ Energy Sector (XLE)

XLE continues to work higher as expected and remains one of the strongest areas of the market.

The longer-term structure remains constructive, and we continue to expect relative strength from Energy.

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₿ Crypto Market Overview (BTC / ETH)

Bitcoin is trading near the lower portion of its recent sideways range. We could see additional weakness this week. Following the recent JAC, another controlled pullback could potentially produce a Backup signal from our Wyckoff Alert Engine.

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Ethereum is also trading toward the lower end of its recent range. ETH fired a BU two weeks ago, but we still want to see how price responds to current support before becoming more aggressive.

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🔄 Rotational & Thematic Notes

Current sector leadership:

• XLE — Energy
• SMH — Semiconductors
• XLK — Technology

The combination of Energy and Technology leadership is constructive, but broader market conditions have weakened. With the overall Market Health Score at 46, we continue to favor selective exposure rather than broad risk-taking.

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🧠 Tactical Outlook

The SPY setup is straightforward.

We have reached the Backup area we were looking for, and the Technometer is oversold. Now buyers need to show up.

A successful response from approximately $760 could produce another rally attempt. Failure to rally from oversold conditions would be a warning that the correction is becoming more serious.

We remain bearish on TLT, cautiously bullish on the Dollar while support holds, constructive on XLE, patient on precious metals, and cautious with BTC and ETH until their current ranges resolve.

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👉 What We’re Watching Now

• Can SPY rally from the $760 Backup zone?
• Does the Technometer’s oversold reading produce a meaningful response?
• Can QQQ strengthen alongside SPY?
• Does TLT continue lower following increased downside volume?
• How do bonds and the Dollar respond to Wednesday’s Fed?
• Can the Dollar hold its critical support area?
• Does GDX provide the pullback we’re looking for?
• Can XLE continue its leadership?
• Does BTC fire a BU on further weakness?
• Can ETH successfully hold following its earlier BU?
• Do SMH and XLK maintain leadership?

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⚠️ Disclaimer

The WyckoffSMI Week In Review is provided for educational and informational purposes only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. All commentary reflects a Wyckoff-structure interpretation at the time of publication and may change as market conditions evolve.

Investing involves substantial risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. WyckoffSMI and affiliated entities may hold positions in securities discussed. Readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and should consult a qualified financial professional before acting.

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