No change

Click Here For Wyckoff Wave Chart 06-08-2016

Short Term:

Their are no short-term opportunities to the upside. Despite the inability of the Wyckoff Wave to begin the expected reaction, this would be a very dangerous place to take new positions to the upside.

No change: Short-term bears can continue to identify candidates to the downside. Positions can be taken if supply enters the market tomorrow. However, they should be closely watched as the reaction may not be particularly deep.

Intermediate & Long Term:

Intermediate and long-term bulls should maintain existing positions. However, this is a good place to close trades that have reached objectives and eliminate any underperforming positions. Cash should be held in preparation for ending action and a move to the upside.

There are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the downside.

Market Trends:

Intra-day: Up

Short Term: Neutral

Intermediate Term: Neutral

Long Term: Neutral

The stock market, as measured by the Wyckoff Wave, traded higher on decreased volume. It closed in the lower half of a narrower price spread, in a dangerously overbought position relative to the Technometer. The price spread and volume suggest a lack of demand.

A review of the intra-day waves indicates that, despite the low volume, today was a standoff between demand and supply.

After a small gap opening to the upside, the Wyckoff Wave rallied to point Z on moderate demand. There, demand was withdrawn and the Wyckoff Wave reacted for the rest of the trading day. The reaction to point A was on moderate supply. Then the Wyckoff Wave attempted to rally, but demand was withdrawn and the Wave made little progress.

The Wyckoff Wave rallied into an overbought position, relative to the intra-day up trend channel, at point Z. Then it reacted back into the trend channel and the up trend continues.

I have drawn a line, in red, on the intra-day chart that presents the level of thrusts. The thrusts between the bottom of the rally and point R and points R and V were relatively wide. Then the thrust to point X was reduced and the thrust to point Z was even narrower. The narrowing of thrusts is another indication that the rally will have a difficult time continuing its advance. This continues to make the Wyckoff Wave vulnerable to react through its trend channel and test the lows at the bottom of the rally.

The Optimism – Pessimism Index rallied. It is an extremely overbought position relative to its upward trend channel. The negative inharmonious action with the Wyckoff Wave, when compared to point V remains in place.

The Force Index continue to rally and is producing moderate positive readings. There is a mitigating impact on the dangerously overbought Technometer.

Tomorrow, the Technometer will open in an extremely overbought condition.

Today the Wyckoff Wave continued its advance, but on narrower price spread and reduced volume. Even though it closed above the resistance line drawn from point V, it has made little progress to the upside over the past two trading days.

The Technometer remains in an extremely overbought position. Despite the strong Force Index readings, these Technometer readings make it difficult for the Wyckoff Wave to advance. That is demonstrated by the lack of progress, to the upside, over the last two trading days.

Today’s lack of progress, without any change in the Wyckoff indicators, continues to suggest the Wyckoff Wave is not “jumping the Creek” and moving strongly into new high ground. It strongly suggests that the Wyckoff Wave has little opportunity to continue its rally.

While it is taking an extremely long time to reverse direction, the Wyckoff Wave continues to be expected to react back into the trading range and test the old resistance/support line and the lows at point Z.

As mentioned previously, if the Wyckoff Wave reacts resistance line marking the top of the trading range will be adjusted to reflect this rally’s highs.