Aggressive bears consider new positions

Click Here For Wyckoff Wave Chart 04-21-2016
Short Term:

Their are no short-term opportunities to the upside.

Aggressive short-term bears could consider new positions to the downside. If the Wyckoff Wave reacts and then rallies to test these highs, lower risk opportunities should be available.

Intermediate & Long Term:

Intermediate and long-term bulls should maintain existing positions.

There are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the downside.

Market Trends:

Intra-day: Up.

Short Term: Neutral.

Intermediate Term: Neutral

Long Term: Neutral

The stock market, as measured by the Wyckoff Wave, traded higher on increased volume. It closed in the lower half of a narrower price spread, in an overbought position relative to the Technometer. The price spread and volume suggest the presence of supply.

A review of the intra-day waves indicates that the morning’s market action featured a lack of demand. Supply was present during the afternoon hours.

After a gap opening to the upside, the Wyckoff Wave rallied on increased price spread and volume to point Z. Then, it spent the next 2 hours and 50 min. attempting to rally.

The attempt, which ended at point A, only netted 82 points. As demand dried up, the Wyckoff Wave was unable to reach the supply line of its intra-day up trend channel.

Supply returned during the afternoon hours as evidenced by the higher volume and wider price spread. While certainly present, the supply was not overpowering.

Once again, the continued withdrawal of demand was the most significant factor during the trading day.

The Wyckoff Wave is testing the support line of its intra-day up trend channel. Today’s afternoon supply suggests there is a good probability that the Wyckoff Wave will react and weaken the intra-day channel.

The Optimism – Pessimism Index rallied and remains in an overbought position relative to its upward trend channel. The negative inharmonious action, with the Wyckoff Wave, when compared with points D, B, Z and X remains in place.

The Force Index moved sideways and continues to produce low negative readings. There is a mitigating impact on the overbought Technometer.

Tomorrow, the Technometer will open in a clearly overbought condition.

Today, the Wyckoff Wave continued its poor quality advance. Once again, the inability of demand to come into the market continues to strongly suggests the Wyckoff Wave will react.

This scenario is supported by the overbought Technometer and the negative inharmonious actions with the O – P Index.

The Wyckoff Wave has also reached the bottom of the eight month sideways move that began in December, 2014. Overhanging supply from that time can be expected, as investors who purchase during that sideways move have an opportunity to get out close to even.

This, plus the lack of demand and the negative indications from the Wyckoff tools support the reaction back into the trading range scenario.

Charts of the Wyckoff Wave are attached.