A Dull Wall Street Day

Thursday, November 17, 2016

What To Do?

No changes from yesterday

Short Term:

Short-term bulls should continue to maintain their positions. The expected minor reaction would create a difficult risk/reward ratio for any new positions to the downside. Short-term short positions are not recommended.

There are no short-term positions to the downside.

Intermediate & Long Term:

Intermediate and long term positions to the upside should be maintained.

There are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the downside

Market Trends:

Intra-day: Neutral.
Short Term: Neutral.
Intermediate Term: Neutral
Long Term: Neutral

The stock market, as measured by the Wyckoff Wave traded very slightly lower on increased volume. It closed in the upper half of a wider price spread, in a neutral condition relative to the Technometer. The price spread and volume suggest the presence of supply.

A review of the intra-day waves confirms the above. However, despite the presence of some moderate supply, the Wyckoff Wave did not make much of the move to the downside.

After a slight gap opening to the upside, the Wyckoff Wave attempted to advance, but failed as supply came into the market. The Wave reacted to point M on good price spread and volume.

Some demand returned and the Wyckoff Wave rallied to point N. Once again demand was withdrawn. Supply returned and the Wyckoff Wave reacted to point O.

Then, the Wyckoff Wave spent the last three hours of the trading day in a poor quality rally that, like yesterday, suggested a lack of demand.

The intra-day Optimism – Pessimism Index is in harmony with the Wyckoff Wave.

Although supply was certainly present, it did not have a major impact on the market. The more significant portion of the days market action was the lack of demand found in the afternoon rally. The Wyckoff Wave made very little progress to the upside on relatively narrow price spread and moderate volume.

Like yesterday, this continues to make the Wyckoff Wave vulnerable to react and test the lows at point W.

The Optimism – Pessimism Index reacted slightly. It continues in a negative divergence with the Wyckoff Wave when compared with points N, J and H.

The Force Index reacted and continues to produce moderate negative readings.

Tomorrow, the Technometer will open in a low neutral condition.

Today, the Wyckoff Wave moved sideways in a rather dull trading action. The presence of supply and the afternoon lack of demand continue to suggest the Wyckoff Wave will, at some point, react and test the resistance, now support, at points R and P.

Any reaction should place the Technometer in an oversold condition and, as mentioned yesterday it will be important to compare that with the oversold condition at point S.

The reaction back to a Last Point of Support, within the trading range, continues to have the highest probability of success.