Short positions should be maintained

Their are no short-term opportunities to the upside.

Short-term positions to the downside should be maintained.

Intermediate and long-term bulls should maintain existing positions.

There are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the downside.

Intra-day:  Down, but in an overbought position

Short Term: Neutral.

Intermediate Term: Neutral

Long Term:  Neutral

The stock market, as measured by the Wyckoff Wave, experienced an intra-day failure to the upside. It closed on relatively low, but increased, volume, at the bottom of a slightly narrower price spread, in a nearly oversold condition relative to the Technometer. The intra-day failure suggests the presence of supply.

A review of the intra-day waves confirms the above. After a gap opening and follow-through to the upside at point H, supply came into the market and the Wyckoff Wave reacted to point S.

Then it attempted to rally, but made little progress as demand was withdrawn. Supply returned again at point J and the Wyckoff Wave reacted for the last hour and 5 min. of the trading day. It closed at its low for the day.

Once again the Wyckoff Wave attempted to rally and test the high at point V. Once again the test was successful and the Wyckoff Wave reacted.

Because supply was stronger today than it was on Friday, this increases the probability that the reaction will continue and test or move through the lows at points O and Q.

The Optimism – Pessimism Index reacted and is testing the supply line of its upward trend channel. It remains in a short-term negative divergence, with the Wyckoff Wave, when compared with point R. The longer-term divergences with points D, B, Z and X remain in place.

The Force Index reacted and is producing moderately negative readings. There is a very slight mitigating impact on the nearly oversold Technometer.

Tomorrow, the Force Index will open in a low neutral condition.

Today, the Wyckoff Wave attempted to rally and test the high at point T. The attempt failed and the Wyckoff Wave reacted to a poor close.

As mentioned above, the increased presence of the intra-day supply gives the Wyckoff Wave an opportunity to react through the low at point S and continue back into the trading range.

While a continued reaction will quickly move the Technometer into an oversold condition, an attempt to rally could be mitigated by a receding Force Index.

Even if the Wyckoff Wave moves into new low ground, there will probably be an attempt to rally and either test the high at point T, or, if the reaction is deep enough the bottom of the sideways movement that is marked by point S.

Either way, there is a good probability the Wyckoff Wave will react over the next day or so.