Short Term:
Short-term bears who took positions to the downside should watch them closely. These positions could be in jeopardy if good demand returns tomorrow. If the Wyckoff Wave continues to react, new positions to the downside may still be taken. However, don’t chase.
There are no short-term opportunities to the upside.
Intermediate & Long Term:
Intermediate and long-term bulls should maintain existing positions.
There are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the downside.
Market Trends:
Intra-day: Up
Short Term: Up.
Intermediate Term: Down and in an overbought position relative to the trend.
Long Term: Neutral
The stock market, as measured by the Wyckoff Wave, traded higher on decreased volume. It closed in the middle of a narrower price spread, in a nearly overbought condition relative to the Technometer. The price spread and volume suggest a lack of demand.
A review of the intra-day waves confirms the above. After a small gap opening to the upside and a poor quality follow-through to point W, supply came into the market and, on one intra-day wave, the Wyckoff Wave reacted to point X.
Demand returned, but was withdrawn on a second poor quality rally to point Y . Then, the Wyckoff Wave reacted and moved sideways. Efforts to move the market to the upside, quickly resulted in a withdrawal of demand.
The Wyckoff Wave is testing the support line of its intra-day up trend channel. Nothing in today’s market action changes yesterday’s scenario. The Wyckoff Wave is expected to react, weaken and probably break the intra-day up trend.
The Optimism – Pessimism Index rallied slightly. It remains in a negative divergence with the Wyckoff Wave when compared with points D, B, Z and X.
The Force Index rallied, but is still producing moderate negative readings.
Tomorrow, the Technometer will open in a slightly overbought condition.
Today, the Wyckoff Wave attempted to rally and experienced a withdrawal of demand. This unimpressive market action, to the upside, continues to support the reaction scenario.
The Technometer begins tomorrow in an overbought condition. This, along with the Wave’s negative divergences with both the O – P Index and Force Index are in concert with the poor quality price spread and volume to the upside.
In addition there appears to be a fair amount of overhanging supply coming from the sideways movement that began at point V.
As demand did not come into the market today, short-term bears should continue to hold their positions to the downside.
Tomorrow will be a critical day as the Wyckoff Wave needs to react and, at least, weaken the short-term uptrend channel.
Charts of the Wyckoff Wave are attached.
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