Watch and wait continues

Their are no short-term opportunities to the upside.

As mentioned below, after completing its reaction off point R, the Wyckoff Wave may attempt to rally and test the high. If the test is successful, it may be a good entry point for short-term positions to the downside.

Intermediate & Long Term:  No change from Monday.

Intermediate and long-term bulls should maintain existing positions. However, positions that had reached objective areas and those that have under performed, can be liquidated as the Wyckoff Wave reached the top the top of its trading range.

There are no intermediate or long term opportunities to the downside.

Market Trends:

Intra-day: Up

Short Term: Neutral.

Intermediate Term: Down and in an overbought position, relative to the trend.

Long Term:  Neutral

The stock market, as measured by the Wyckoff Wave, traded higher on slightly increased volume. It closed at the top of a wider price spread, in a neutral condition relative to the Technometer. The price spread and volume suggest the presence of demand.

A review of the intra-day waves confirms the above. After a wide gap opening to the downside, which became the low for the trading day, the Wyckoff Wave spent the rest of the day rallying. The rally was on relatively weak price spread and volume, until the last hour and 55 min. of the trading day. This comprised the last intra-day wave and the Wyckoff Wave rallied strongly on good price spread and volume.

At the market’s close, the Wyckoff Wave is now attempting to return to its intra-day up trend channel.

While the last intra-day wave was on good price spread and volume, it’s apparent strength is somewhat mitigated by its usually it’s unusually long time frame.

While the Wyckoff Wave may return to the intra-day up trend channel, it will have a hard time reaching the highs at points L and J. This would suggest the Wyckoff Wave will successfully test those highs and react.

The Optimism – Pessimism Index rallied. It is in an overbought position relative to its up trend channel. The slight short-term negative divergence, with the Wyckoff Wave, when compared with point P has returned. The longer-term negative divergences, with the Wyckoff Wave, when compared with top of the trading range, continues.

The Force Index rallied, but is still producing moderate negative readings.

On Monday, as Good Friday is a market holiday, the Technometer will open in a slightly overbought condition.

Today, the Wyckoff Wave reacted on its gap opening and tested the lows formed by the sideways movement that began with point V. There, demand returned and the Wyckoff Wave rallied.

The Wyckoff Wave appears ready to test Monday’s high at point R (point J on the intra-day chart). If this test is successful, there is a good probability the Technometer will be in an overbought condition.

If that happens, all the Wyckoff tools would be sending negative signals and there could be a good short-term opportunity to the downside. The answers will come next week. Until then the watch and wait strategy remains in place.

My very best to you and your family for a blessed and joyous Easter weekend.