Wyckoff Wave Overbought and Upthrusting?

The Wyckoff Wave was up for the week.  Volume continues at relative low levels.
The O-P was up for the week.
The Force Index was up also for the week.
The Technometer moved to overbought on the close Friday.   We think this rally is near an end here.  We could see a possible upthrust, and then lets see if any follow thru to the downside.

The Wyckoff Wave and OP are moving in unison.

The Wyckoff Wave closed above the recent highs on Friday, but with an overbought Technometer reading.   It doesn’t appear this is a jump as the volume leaves much to be desired.  No real interest up here from buyers, so we are inclined to look for upthrust type action.

The Wyckoff Wave Growth Index (WWG) was lower last week.
The Technometer was nearing oversold on Tuesday which slowed the decline.  We have now bounced to neutral on the Technometer, so we could still a little more rally attempts early in the week.   Then we will look for this market to turn lower once again.
The SPY finished the week slightly higher.
The Techometer finally registered overbought here as well, in lockstep with the Wyckoff Wave.   Lets see if the new high Friday will be reversed this week.   We had been short the SPY but took small losses on Thursday, but we will probably be looking to reenter those shorts in the coming days.
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The bond market was up for the week.
Our Technometer had been at extreme overbought levels two weeks ago, but now registering below neutral.  We still think the TLT could continue to recover recent losses by resuming its short term uptrend.

The GDX finished the week sharply higher.
The Technometer did register oversold, and a sharp rally to end the week.  We are still short and not happy with short term price action.   We still think the trend is lower so we will give this market a little more room to the upside, before exiting shorts.

The long dollar ETF, UUP closed down sharply for the week.
We are still long this market, and did not stop out at the break of the lows on Friday.  The action is very disappointing for the bulls…..

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Good Trading,

Todd Butterfield

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